As Grafstein explains, Newcomb鈥檚 Problem, also known as Newcomb鈥檚 Paradox, can help us understand why people choose to vote by helping us to view the decision not to vote as a rational choice. He mentions that this is only one of many social scientific applications of the thought experiment, 鈥淣ewcomb鈥檚 Problem isn鈥檛 an esoteric issue鈥� It actually relates to a lot of decisions that we make, including in politics and society, the most notable one being voting but there are lots of other ones as well.鈥�

Grafstein鈥檚 article will be a chapter in a Cambridge University Press book about Newcomb鈥檚 Problem coming out in October.

Another topic Grafstein has been researching gets to the core of recent voting issues in another way. 鈥淭he Problem with Polarization,鈥� recently published in Public Choice, goes deeper into the issue of polarization and extremism in politics. Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal identified this problem in the 1980s, but Grafstein鈥檚 paper attempts to explain exactly why polarization is an issue today.

鈥淧olarization itself is not a problem as long as people can put aside their beliefs and shake hands at some point. But we鈥檙e seeing polarization that leads to extremism and dysfunctional politics, which is why it has become a problem,鈥� Grafstein explains.

What Grafstein has found is that income is an important source of the polarization that leads to extremist beliefs. This is rather groundbreaking considering extremist beliefs are often referred to by the media as the result of psychological or genetic issues. But as Grafstein explains, 鈥�20 percent of Trump voters voted for Obama, so it鈥檚 highly unlikely that those people just 鈥榮napped鈥� between elections. Rather, they鈥檙e making a tradeoff. People do not become polarized as a result of some psychological or genetic issue, they become polarized based on their reaction to risk related to their income.鈥�

So according to Grafstein, politics is a risky endeavor, but it鈥檚 more risky for people at the economic poles which is what leads to political polarization. People on the low end of the economic spectrum have a lot to gain compared to the risk of having their income drastically reduced. People on the high end of the economic spectrum risk losing their fortunes. This risk pushes people at the economic poles toward the political poles.

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